At the beginning of the month, the market reached consecutive highs with a historical record of 97,50 €/tonne. EUA prices then resisted at 90 €/tonne, limiting gains for two weeks.
On Wednesday’s 2nd session, the first bullish breakout struck +4,69 €/tonne daily. However, on Friday the 4th, the market entered the hypersold area with an RSI of 73 points.
After January’s bullish sessions, the market ‘took a breath’ during the second week of February with bearish moves. The exchange registered a weekly loss of 3,71%. Wednesday was reported to be the most-bearish session of the week and registered very volatile prices, with a daily trading range of 7,34 €/tonne. However, on Friday, February 11th EUA DEC22 reached 88,50 €/tonne, the lowest prices recorded.
The Ukrainian crisis has negatively impacted the market, and its influence appeared more robust than the support the market is receiving from the rising oil prices.
In the third week of February, EUAs further lose 3,66% compared to Friday, February 11th. EUA DEC22 continued trading below 90 €/tonne again and reached weekly lows of 85,80 €/tonne. Then, a first resistance can be found around the 20-day moving average, at 91,25 €/tonne.
The last week of the month appeared bearish again, with a decrease of 1,49% from Friday, February 18th. Thursday’s session showed the front-year contract losing over 8 €/tonne. The free allocation in the Netherlands the previous day could have weighted on pre-existing weak prices by adding liquidity on the market. On Thursday, the market showed the highest liquidity since December 15th, with almost 50 million EUAs traded on the DEC22 future. However, 86 €/tonne remained a strong support this week, and prices bounced back on the 17th, 18th, and 24th of the month.
Francesco Rogato
With his commodity trading experience, specializing in the energy sector, and extensive knowledge of European exchange platforms and Over-The-Counter markets, he brings his advanced analytical view on the EU ETS carbon market in a monthly short blog, “Let’s Talk Carbon”.