September started bearish for EUAs from the 5th to the 9th day leaving on the ground at 15,16%. All trading days during the first week of the month appeared bearish and the lowest was reached on Tuesday 6th: -4,57 €/tonne in the most liquid session since July 10th EUAs reached infra-day lows at 69,20 €/tonne. The first support was identified at 66,00 €/tonne while the first resistance remained at 75,50 €/tonne. The market stayed heavily influenced by the volatility of other correlated commodities such as gas and power and the European policy development regarding the energy crisis.
The following week concluded with a positive sign: +10,88% from Friday, September 9th. After reaching lows at 65,55 €/tonne on September 9th EUAs the price recovered by almost 9 €, with infra-day peaks at 73,93 €/tonne on Friday 16th. The kickstart of the rise was given on Monday: the session closed with a +5,74 €/tonne daily and the DEC22 went back trading above the 365-day moving average, which is at this moment the main support for EUAs having limited losses from Thursday 15th (around 71,80 €/tonne).
During the third week of the month, the market returned bearishly and reached the 7-months low. Every week the exchange struck a decrease of 10,24% with the DEC22 EUAs that slipped until 65,35 €/ton on Friday 23rd. Trading days alternated negative and slightly positive sessions, but the general sentiment remained negative. EUAs remain below all moving reference averages, including the emblematic one at 365 days (around 72 €/tonne).
The first support was identified in the lower Bollinger band around 63 €/tonne; the following was at 60,00 €/tonne. The resistance was represented by the 365-day moving average.
During the last week of the month, the exchange seemed to be pausing the sensible depreciation as it was in the previous weeks: the month concluded with a +1,46% variation since Friday 23rd. The DEC22 EUAs are floating below 70 €/ton, and new lows have been reached since March at 64,14 €/tonne, reached Thursday 29th.
By now, the trend remained bearish, but prices are sensibly feeling the general macroeconomic uncertainties: this was visible in the alternating bullish and bearish sessions, with EUAs that failed to find a clear direction. The first support is now at 64,00 €/tonne, while the first resistance is the 20-day moving average at 69,00 €/tonne, limiting bullish moves since the 26th.
Francesco Rogato
With his commodity trading experience, specializing in the energy sector, and extensive knowledge of European exchange platforms and Over-The-Counter markets, he brings his advanced analytical view on the EU ETS carbon market in a monthly short blog, “Let’s Talk Carbon”.