The first week of the month concludes with an adverse market after a quick bullish breakout during the first days of November (with infra-day highs at 82 €/tonne on October 31st). After this, DEC22 EUAs left on the ground at 5,97 % daily, and the market returned to trading below 80 €/tonne. The rise was stopped by the 200-day moving average, slightly above 80 €/tonne, preventing EUAs from consolidating above this level. The first support is around 75 €, corresponding to the bullish explosion on October 27th and a Fibonacci retracement.
The second week of the month is relatively fair for EUAs. The front-year contract closed without particular change at -0,68%. There were depreciations during the first part of the week and subsequent recovery in the other half. After reaching the lowest point since October 24th at 70,50 €/tonne on Thursday, 10th, the DEC22 EUAs closed the day positively and went back to trading above 76 €/tonne during the afternoon of November 11th. Prices were “holding their breath” to see potential policy developments coming from the COP27 or the trialogue negotiations in Europe; however, there was little movement from EUAs, which did not show clear direction. The psychological support at 70 €/tonne persisted. At the same time, the first resistance identified with the 100-day moving average, limiting bullish breakouts since the beginning of the month and placing itself at 77,85 €/tonne.
The third week of the month was negative for EUA prices, with the DEC22 future left on the ground at 4,44%. After a positive start, the bearish sentiment has intensified starting from Wednesday 16th: during the first half of the session, new highs were reached at 77,41 €/tonne (weekly highs), but after that, the market lost ground, and the front-year contract closed over 3 € below the previous settlement. The exchange then remained weak until the end of the period and reached weekly lows at 71,95 €/tonne during the session of Friday 18th.
The last week of November was positive with EUAs, which gained 8,82% and traded above 79 €/tonne.
Quotations placed themselves above the 20-day moving average and peaked during the session of Friday 24th, with the front-year contract with highs at 79,78 €/tonne bouncing on the upper Bollinger band. Increasing highs were reached almost every day starting from Monday 21st; the week showed only positive sessions except for a slight retracement earlier Tuesday.
Francesco Rogato
With his commodity trading experience, specializing in the energy sector, and extensive knowledge of European exchange platforms and Over-The-Counter markets, he brings his advanced analytical view on the EU ETS carbon market in a monthly short blog, “Let’s Talk Carbon”.