03/04/2024

The market remained bullish during the first week of March, although at a slower pace than at the end of February. There was a +3.58% increase from Friday, March 4th, to March 8th, with prices trading again above 62 €/tonne. In particular, peaks were reached at 62.80 €/tonne during last Wednesday, the 6th. However, that day closed on a down note, and the exchange showed some uncertainty for the rest of the week, with decreasing highs and a slowdown in bullish acceleration. On the 6th of the month, there was also extremely high liquidity, with over 59 million EUAs traded on the DEC24, the highest since December 2021. The first support area for the DEC24 was found at the 20-day moving average at 56.34 €/tonne.

The second week of March saw a slight recovery in EUA prices, which rose by +1.71% on a weekly basis compared to Friday, March 8th. The DEC24 EUAs pushed themselves until they reached 60.25 €/tonne towards the end of the week, in line with the highs of the previous Friday. The examined period (March 11-15) opened with decreasing prices, which reached weekly lows during Thursday’s session at 55.02 €/tonne. However, on the same trading day, the DEC24 bounced on the old technical support at 55.00 €/tonne, and prices went back to trading above 60.00 €/tonne the following session. The support was at 55.00 €/tonne, represented by the lowest point after Ukraine’s invasion. Although it had been violated, it seemed to be yet again significant, while the resistance was still found at 62.80 €/tonne (identified the previous week).

During the third week of the month, the market extended the recovery of prices, still sustained by gas prices, and rose by +3.57% on a weekly basis. The DEC24 EUAs increased until they reached weekly highs at 62.89 €/tonne already on Tuesday, the 19th, and, after a slight retracement in the middle of the analyzed period, EUAs yet again surpassed 62 €/tonne on Friday, the 22nd. This week’s high represented the highest point since February 7th, a further signal that the bearish phase of the market could have found a halt. The old resistance area, at 62.80 €/tonne, limited further price increases while the support remained around 55.00 €/tonne.

During the last week of March, between the 25th and the 29th, the DEC24 EUAs reached a new peak at 65.49 €/tonne, the highest point since the end of January, but then failed to consolidate the gains and ended the month again below 62.00 €/tonne, ending the session of Thursday, the 28th, at 61.80 €/tonne. The following day, the exchange remained closed due to Easter festivities.

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Francesco Rogato
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With his commodity trading experience, specializing in the energy sector, and extensive knowledge of European exchange platforms and Over-The-Counter markets, he brings his advanced analytical view on the EU ETS carbon market in a monthly short blog, “Let’s Talk Carbon”.