In early April, prices experienced a slight decrease after the Easter holidays, with a weekly basis decrease of -2.89% compared to Thursday, April 6th. DEC23 prices showed a downward trend, falling below the 50-day moving average, which had previously supported prices at slightly below 94 € at the beginning of the month. Throughout the second week of April, DEC23 EUAs decreased by 5.35 €/t, reaching weekly lows on Friday, April 14th at 93.15 €/t after peaking at 98.50 €/t on April 11th. The 20-day moving average (92.50 €/t) was the first level of support identified, having previously supported prices since April 3rd. The first resistance level remains near the historical triple-digit records.
The following week, starting on the 17th, important deals were reached by European policymakers concerning maritime in the ETS, CBAM, and ETS 2. However, the market did not react positively to Europe’s policy goals. While there was a temporary rise in prices on the day of the European Parliament’s positive vote, overall, DEC23 EUAs decreased by 8.73% compared to April 14th during the examined period (17-25/4). Front-year prices fluctuated between 96.47 €/t (19/4) and 86.53 €/t (25/4). The current support level is around the converging 200 and 365-day moving averages in the 85 € area, while the resistance level is near the old support at 92 €.
In the final week of April, the market was confirmed to have been bearish, resulting in a 2.81% decline during the examined period (25/4-1/5). This led to new lows being reached since the middle of March, with prices falling to 85.15 €/t (ref. 26/4). Prices slightly flattened above the 200- and 365-days moving averages, which acted as strong support for prices at 85 €. It was confirmed that the resistance level was at 92 €, an area to which the 20-day moving average was also converging.
Francesco Rogato
With his commodity trading experience, specializing in the energy sector, and extensive knowledge of European exchange platforms and Over-The-Counter markets, he brings his advanced analytical view on the EU ETS carbon market in a monthly short blog, “Let’s Talk Carbon”.